Prospettive per l’economia italiana

Italy’s Economic Outlook

In 2017 GDP is expected to increase by 1.5 percent in real terms.The domestic demand will provide a contribution of 1.5 percentage points while foreign demand will account for a negative 0.1 percentage point conterbalaced by the contribution of inventories (0.1 pp). In 2018 GDP is estimated to increase by 1.4 percent in real terms driven by the contribution of domestic demand (1.5 percentage points) associated to a negative contribution of the foreign demand (-0.1 percentage points).

In 2017 exports will increase by 4.8 percent and imports will grow by 5.9 percent slowing down in 2018. Residential households consumption expenditure is expected to grow by 1.4 percent in 2017 slowing down a bit in 2018. The positive evolution in employment and the wages increase, that go along with constant inflation, are expected to support households purchasing power. Investment are expected to strenghten the recovery both in 2017 (+3.0) and in 2018(+3.3%).

Labour market conditions are expected to improve over the forecasting period. Employment will increase by 1.2 percent in 2017 and by 1.1 in 2017. At the same time, the rate of unemployment will decrease at 11.2 percent in the current year and at 10.9 percent in 2018.

This projections take into account the more favourable international framework and the fiscal benefits for the firms established by the plan Industra 4.0.

Note. On 21.11.2017, the text of the press release was replaced as a correction was made in Table 1 (page 1) and in the text in the first paragraph on page 5.

earnings, economic outlook, exports, forecasts, GDP, imports, investments
External trade, Households economic conditions, Labour and wages, National accounts
document typology:
Press release
Reference period
Years 2017-2018
Date of publication
21 November 2017
Full text
(pdf 218 KB)

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